Post from November, 2012

Close, but no cigar…

Thursday, 22. November 2012 14:28

President Obama won pretty much the same number of electoral votes in 2012 as he did in 2008. However, this fact masks the significant drop in support for Obama across the board in the country. As the below map illustrates, Obama lost support in almost every state. He suffered his biggest drops in support in the West/Northhwest part of the country, excepting the Left Coast. Obama picked up votes in only 5 states, and only in Alaska was it a substantial improvement.

2008vs2012

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It was 2004 afterall…

Wednesday, 7. November 2012 10:26

I’ve updated the figure from my 2004-2012 comparison post here. Note that Obama converges on the Bush line 2 days before the end of polling, while Romney converges on the Kerry line the final day of polling. Oddly, and reflective of the national poll “miss” of the election, the RCP average understates Obama’s number by about a percentage point. On election night, Obama underperformed Bush by about 0.7% (50.7% to 50%) in the national popular vote, not the -1.6% underperformance predicted by the RCP average. Either way, this election tracks the 2004 election results fairly well. While Romney outperformed Kerry substantially in the first three weeks of September and the middle of October, he falls back in line with Kerry in the final week of the election. And concomitantly Obama was well underperforming Bush through September and into October, but rallied in the later part of October to nearly match the Bush final tally. Lesson? I guess don’t nominate grey-haired, lanky, white politicians from Massachusetts if you want to beat an incumbent president in a down economy. ;)

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Second Term

Tuesday, 6. November 2012 23:16

Looks like those state polls turned out to have it right afterall. Congrats to President Obama.

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The Trouble with Bellweathers

Tuesday, 6. November 2012 3:56

Is they are…until they aren’t. Still, bellweather counties in NH and Ohio lookingly marginally good for Romney.

bellweathers throughout history

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2012 Election Predictions

Monday, 5. November 2012 13:29

My real prediction on the presidential election is “too close to call.” Models of the election that look at economic factors tend to predict a Romney victory, while those that look at political factors (incumbency in a 1st term party control presidency, approval ratings, likeability ratings, etc.) tend to predict an Obama re-election. There is a noticable divergence between state polling (which suggests a 1-2 point lead for Obama in swing states) and national polling (which tend to show a tie or 1-2 point lead for Romeny) that cannot be reconciled by random error — there MUST be systematic bias in one of the two sets of polls. I don’t know which, but I’m more inclined to go with the national pollsters (Gallup, Rassmussen, Pew, Battleground, etc.), since they have more of a track record in polling presidential elections. That said, here are my fearless predictions:

PRESIDENTIAL: Romney 52%; Obama 48% | Romney 280-300+ EC
SENATE: Republicans +4 (51/49 R to D Caucus)
HOUSE: Republicans +5 (246/186 R & D)

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What your TV shows say about your politics

Friday, 2. November 2012 6:56

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