Olson’s Logic – Public Pensions
Megan McCardle discusses the inherent problem of public pension politics, and her argument should remind you of a certain scholar of interest group politics (hint: his name starts with an “M” and ends with ” ancur Olson.”).
I’d guess that broad public sentiment runs in favor of cutting the pensions. But the most motivated sentiment belongs to the pensioners.
Which, given what we know about how interest group politics works (and particularly what ole E.E. had to say about the bias towards small, motivated homogenous groups versus large, diffuse and heterogenous groups), tells us that policy is likely to be skewed towards pensioners rather than the regulation-favoring mass public. Consequently, limiting public pensions is unlikely to be on the public agenda anytime soon in a meaningful way.
