It looks like this year-long health care reform process is finally coming to an end…with a vote on Sunday. I’m still not sure which way it will go…though signs this week indicate it just might sqeek by with the 216 necessary to send the Senate bill to the president. At that point, Obamacare will have passed. All that will remain is the extent to which it will be ‘modified’ in the reconcilliation process. Of course we have the “doctor fix” coming down the line. This change to Medicare cuts for doctor payments adds to the deficit, so the Dems seperated it out earlier since they wanted their bill to have the petina of deficit reduction.

There’s a great deal of uncertainty over what will happen Sunday. Based on this week’s indication, I’d rate the chance of passage now as better than 50/50…mabye 55 to 60% chance of passage…though that is little more than a wild guess. If there is a vote on Sunday, it is almost certainly an indicator that Pelosi has recieved assurances from 216 or more members that they would vote yes. If there is no vote on Sunday, then the chances of Obamacare being passed tank…with the odds being that it will be scrapped for the forseeable future.

All in all, very interesting times. Be sure to tune in on Sunday…because either way it will have an enormous impact on health care for the next decade and beyond.